MARKETS FOR 29TH MARCH

   FINALLY SPOT NIFTY MANAGED TO BREACH THE CRITICAL SWING LOW OF 5171 TO MAKE A NEW LOW AT 5169 TO BOUNCE UP  TO FINALLY CLOSE AROUND 5195. HOWEVER SMALL THE BREACH MAY BE, THE FACT THAT 5171 HAS BEEN BREACHED, THE BEARS HAVE PUNCTURED  THE SUPPORT AND HAVE MADE A PIN HOLE THROUGH IT TO BE WIDENED LATER TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE LOGICAL TARGET OF 5080, THE MINIMUM DOWNWARD RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF WAVE 2 TO RESUME THE UP MOVE FROM AROUND 5080 LEVELS. EVEN ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE CRITICAL 61.8% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 4949 BEING TESTED DURING THIS DOWN SWING. IT  WILL BE A MIRACLE FOR THE BULLS IF THEY FIND BEARS SATISFIED WITH THE MILD BREACH OF 5171 BY JUST 2 POINTS TILL 5169 & GIVE UP HALF THE WAY WITHOUT PURSUING TOWARDS  A BIGGER SLIDE.

THE HEFTY PREMIUM OF AROUND 50 POINTS COMMANDED BY NIFTY FUTURES ABOVE SPOT NIFTY DURING THE INITIAL DAYS OF THIS EXPIRY WAS A CLEAR INDICATION THAT THERE IS SOMETHING FISHY AND THE PREMIUM HAD TO BE NEUTRALIZED TO MAKE NIFTY FUTURE RUN DISCOUNT TO NIFTY SPOT AND THAT IS WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW. FOR THE EXPIRY DAY NO TECHNICALS WILL WORK AND NIFTY WILL BE MADE TO CLOSE AT THE DESIRED LEVEL OF BIG PLAYERS AND NO ONE CAN  DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT. IT COULD BE EVEN A 5000 EXPIRY CLOSE IN CASE THE BEARS HAVE THEIR SAY. GENERALLY SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE LINES ARE BREACHED DURING THE EXPIRY DAYS WHEN NO ONE DARES TO TAKE A CHANCE WITH THE BIG PLAYERS & THIS TIME IS NO EXCEPTION. SO, BULLS MAY CONSIDER THEMSELVES AS EXTREMELY LUCKY IF NIFTY HAS AN EXPIRY CLOSING MUCH ABOVE 5100. AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART ABOVE, NIFTY HAS FORMED A DOUBLE BOTTOM AND ANOTHER BREACH OF 5171 CAN SEE A STONE LIKE FALL STRAIGHT TOWARDS 5080.

SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE SPOT NIFTY SPOT HAS TO DECISIVELY CROSS THE CRITICAL ZONE BETWEEN 5237 TILL 5257 IN ORDER TO INDUCE SOME SHORT COVERING FOR NIFTY TO MOVE UP TOWARDS  HIGHER LEVELS TO HAVE A SYMPATHETIC CLOSING AROUND 5250 TO 5300 LEVELS WHICH AGAIN NEEDS DEVINE POWER TO BE BESTOWED ON THE BULLS  TO ACHIEVE THIS HERCULEAN FEET ON THE EXPIRY DAY. BULLS HAVE TO INITIALLY BREACH  5237 TO AIM FOR  5260 IN ORDER TO MOVE UP TOWARDS HIGHER LEVELS. A FAILURE TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 5237 SPOT MAY BE CONFIDENTLY SHORTED FOR GOOD GAINS BY HAVING A STOP LOSS A FEW POINTS ABOVE 5240 SPOT. SIMILARLY FAILURE TO HOLD LOWER SUPPORTS OF 5170 TO 5160 MAY ALSO BE RUTHLESSLY SHORTED FOR GOOD GAINS. OPTION TRADERS MAY ACCUMULATE APRIL MONTH 5400 CALLS ON MARKET DECLINES AND 5100 APRIL PUTS ON MARKET BOUNCE AND CARRY THESE FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE RATIO OF 2 CALLS  TO 1  PUT