NIFTY OUTLOOK 11/04/2012

NIFTY FUT CLOSED AT 5266.15
NF SUPPORT LEVELS ARE 5235 5223 5211 5196 ....BETWEEN  S3 AND S4 I WUD LIKE TO COVER MY SHORTS AND BE LONG WTH A 5190 SL
NF WILL FIND RES NEAR 5287 5310 5321
WUD LIKE TO SHORT BETWEEN R2 AND R3 WITH SL ABOOVE 5331

NIFTY- day trade levels- 11-Apr-12

I  will be posting  the  levels of NIFTY (spot)  for  the purpose of  level based intra day trading.
These levels are obtained  using a combination of conventional methods and some of my own methods.  These are not any pivot levels or any other levels.  These are my own levels.
There will be 5 levels given every day including a mid point.  These levels are only for intraday trading of NIFTY.
I am sure,  these levels will give you excellent results.
 *******************************
How to trade these levels ?
There will be 5 levels given everyday.
Once the market opens,  just see nifty value where it lies among these 5 levels of the day.   If nifty is in between any of these levels, then allow it to touch the nearest level.
If nifty goes below that level, and stay there for 3 minutes or more, then SELL.  Target would be the next below level. 
If nifty goes above that level, and stay there for 3 minutes or more ,  then  BUY.  Targe would be the next upper level
Stop loss can be kept as 14 points from the point of entry initially.
Once the trade makes 14+ profit,   move the stop loss to the entry price.
If you find that the trade is in wrong direction and convinced that nifty is moving in opposite direction, then move the stop loss to the nearnest point of nifty and take the stop loss.  Try to reverse the trade immediately if required.
Happy trading....
please note:

When nifty cross the HIGH 2 (2nd high level)   or goes below LOW 2 (2nd low level)  and stay there for about 3 to 5 minutes,   then there is chance that,  NIFTY may go approx 0.6 to 0.8%  further  Up or Down  from that level as the case may be.  ie approx  25  to 35 points  from the high 2  or  low2.

**********************************************
NIFTY(spot)  -  Intraday  trade  levels  for  11-04-2012

High 2	5316
High 1	5276
Mid Point	5248
Low 1	5224
Low 2	5182

  Happy trading..

NIFTY REPORT FOR APRIL 11

The Sensex closed at 17244, up 22 points from its previous close, and the Nifty shut shop at 5244, up 9 points. The CNX Midcap index closed with 0.4% loss while the BSE Smallcap index was down 0.1% in today’s trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 624 against declines of 780 on the NSE. The top Nifty gainers were Tata Power, Reliance Communications, Tata Motors and Kotak Mahindra Bank while the biggest losers included BHEL, Ambuja Cements, Ranbaxy and GAIL.
A volatile session is expected ahead. 5200 call added 272550 contracts in open interest and 5200 put added 444450 contracts in open interest. 5100 put added 252450 contracts in open interest, indicating distribution at this level around 5200. Market can turn violent any time at current situation. 5135 zone will act as a strong support zone. Nifty future open interest decreased by 2.36% Indicating less interest in short by smart money. Around 5150 levels nifty is attractive to buy with strict stoploss at 5110 level.
Slow stochastic indicator has fallen sharply while has not fall today, that’s indicating nifty is ready to come in oversold zone very soon.
Need to be cautious at this level. Only intraday trading is advisable for some days.
Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Resistance 3 Resistance 4 Resistance 5
5274.39 5292.56 5310.76 5329 5347.26
Support 1 Support 2 Support 3 Support 4 Support 5
5220.06 5202.01 5184 5166.01 5148.06
Recommendation:
Buy at / above: 5256.25 Targets: 5271.75 – 5289.91 – 5308.11 – 5326.33
Stoploss : 5238.14
Sell at / below: 5238.14 Targets: 5222.67 – 5204.61 – 5186.59 – 5168.59
Stoploss : 5256.25

5200 Building As Support Level For April

Today’s market has seen some buying at lower levels and stock specific action.
At present 5200 offering a support and break of this level will easily drag Nifty to 5050 level
As results season going to kick in still Indexes will face resistance at higher Key levels
5400 is key Higher level and 5200 is important support level from few months
Don’t take heavy long positions and avoid small cap stocks
Cut the greed to make higher returns.For time being stay with the cash and look for better buying opportunity
Best to your trading

IF YOU WANT TO MAKE MONEY IN STOCK MARKET……….

My dear investors if you want to make money in stock market just ban blue channels in your trading life. They change their view just like a model on a ramp. If market down one day they become bearish with scary targets. The next day when market bounce back they do not hesitate to give lofty targets with bullish outlook. In the process small investors are buying at higher level and selling in panic at lower level.
The recent correction is due to problem in Europe and uncertainty over GAAR. But interestingly those who will be affected most by these two news, FII are not selling; in fact they are still buying. Check yourself the data at NSE site. One more interesting fact that most of the Nifty stock are made 52 week high yesterday.Some smart operators are making most of the situation by using advanced tools of trading like basket selling to create an air of uncertainity and picking stocks in the process.
Just recall when IVRCL was trading at 30 levels all the blue channels were shouting from the roof tops with long research reports and advised to sell. The same channels are now recommending it to buy now at 70 level. Rest is self explanatory. So just switch off blue channel till 3.30 pm on trading day to make money in the stock market.
Market today will open positive and try to break up on the positive side. It will become volatile in the second half and face technical resistance at 5300, 5335 and support at 5238.5200. Today Select stocks in mid-cap space will outperform. Till nifty in this range midcap will fly around. Any close above 5335 with volume may open flood gates for 5400 levels.

OPEN INTEREST

 

 

Benefits of monitoring open interestBy monitoring the changes in the open interest figures at the end of each trading day, some conclusions about the day’s activity can be drawn.

Increasing open interest means that new money is flowing into the marketplace. The result will be that the present trend ( up, down or sideways) will continue.

Declining open interest means that the market is liquidating and implies that the prevailing price trend is coming to an end. A knowledge of open interest can prove useful toward the end of major market moves.

A leveling off of open interest following a sustained price advance is often an early warning of the end to an uptrending or bull market.

Open Interest - A confirming indicator
An increase in open interest along with an increase in price is said to confirm an upward trend. Similarly, an increase in open interest along with a decrease in price confirms a downward trend. An increase or decrease in prices while open interest remains flat or declining may indicate a possible trend reversal.

The relationship between the prevailing price trend and open interest can be summarized by the following table.

Price	Open Interest	Interpretation
Rising	Rising	Market is Strong
Rising	Falling	Market is Weakening
Falling	Rising	Market is Weak
Falling	Falling	Market is Strengthening

Stock Tips And Nifty Tips For 10 April 2012

BUY MAX ABV 182 SL BLW 175 TGT 190-195.
SELL HEROMOTOCO BLW 1958 SL ABV 1970 TGT 1940-1930.
(* Momentum calls are for intraday purpose and are generated as per semi-mechanical systems. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism and it should always be there. If you find the stock opened near targets either avoid it or wait for it to come near entry level to enter, and only enter when the risk-reward ratio is favorable to you, we also recommend time to time profit booking and stop loss trailing.)
Nifty’s fully automated technical trend analysis:
NIFTY last traded price: 5231.95.
Turtle Trend Analysis: Current Hourly Trend: Down, Dynamic Trend SL: 5329.8.
Currently the Hourly MACD is bearish since it is trading below its Signal line. The MACD crossed below its Signal line 15 period(s) ago. The Hourly MACD is NOT in an Overbought/Oversold range. There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 period(s).
The current value for the 14 Hourly RSI is 31.531. The Hourly RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought / oversold area. The last Signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago. The RSI and price are not diverging.
PIVOT TRADING LEVELS FOR NIFTY FOR NEXT SESSION:
R2: 5,309.18 R1: 5,270.57 PIVOT POINT: 5,249.28 S1: 5,210.67 S2: 5,150.77

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 10/04/2012

AS EXPECTED NIFTY START TO SLIP DOWN.
SUPPORTS ARE AT 5200 AND AT 5133.
GO THROUGH THE FOLLOWINGS,
AGAIN NIFTY CAUGHT IN THE RANGE. BUT NOW
THE RANGE IS 5133-5400. ANY BREAK UP OR
DOWN IN THE RANGE WILL LEAD ANOTHER 250
POINTS IN THE SAME DIRECTION.
SO NIFTY WILL TOUCH 5650 OR DIP TO 4888
IN APRIL 2012.
AS PER ASTRO
NEGATIVE TREND EXPECTED FOR NIFTY FROM
9TH APRIL TO 25TH APRIL. GREEN TREND
EXPECTED FROM 30TH APRIL.
ASTRO SIGNALS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
———————————-
SUN NOW IN MEENAM HOME. UNION GOVERNMENT
WILL FACE SOME PROBLEMS UP TO 12TH APRIL.
ON 13TH APRIL AS SUN SHIFTING IN TO APEX
HOME MESHAM PSU SECTORS CAN DO WELL
FROM 14TH APRIL.
GURU SHIFTED IN TO THULAM AMSAM. BANKING
CAN DO WELL. BUT AS NEGATIVE TREND EXPECTED
FOR NIFTY CAUTION NEEDED.
SATURN SAILING IN VAKRAM-REVERSAL MODE
IN KANYA HOME WITH KANYA AMSAM. LITTLE
GREEN EXPECTED STEEL, METAL, AND OIL SECTORS.
SUKRAN SHIFTED TO OWN HOME RISHABAM.
REALITY SECTORS CAN RALLY IN THIS WEEK ALSO.
RAAHU AND KETHU SAING IN GOOD
AMSAMS AND HOMES. IT, PHARMA, MIDCAPS
AND AUTO SECTORS CAN SUSTAIN HERE.
AS MARS SKIPING AWAY FROM REVERSAL MODE FROM
WEDNESDAY THIS WEEK, GREEN CAN EXPECTED FOR
INFRA, POWER, AND ADAG STOCKS.
TECHNICAL FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
———————————-
BULLS CAN INITIATE FRESH LONGS AFTER A
CLOSE ABOVE 5355 KEEPING 5311 AS SL.
BEARS HAVE TO KEEP 5333-SPOT AS SL
FOR ALL SHORTS. TARGETS AT 5200 AND 5155.
GOLD TRADING AROUND 1650 AT 1645.
US DOLLAR INDEX TRADING AT 80 NOW AT 79.94.
NYMEX CRUDE TRADING NEAR 105 NOW AT 101.40.
DOW TRADING 126-POINTS RED AT 9PM ON MONDAY.
NEUTRAL TREND SEEN.
NIFTY WEEKLY RANGE
===================
5111/5200-5288-5377/5466
AS PER ASTRO THIS WEEK
=======================
TUESDAY…. RED FROM NOON.
WEDNESDAY.. RED UP TO NOON.
THURSDAY… GREEN DAY.
FRIDAY….. RED AFTER OPENING HOUR.
NIFTY FUTURE MOMENTUM PLAY FOR TUESDAY
=========================================
BUY NIFTY-FUT ABOVE 5266 TARGET 5288/5311 STOPLOSS 5244.
SELL NIFTY-FUT BELOW 5244 TARGET 5222/5200 STOPLOSS 5266.
MOMENTUM PLAY FOR BANKNIFTY
============================
BUY ABOVE 10,200 TARGET 10288/10377 STOPLOSS 10155
SELL BELOW 10,111 TARGET 10022/9933 STOPLOSS 10155
ASTRO VIEW 10/04/2012
======================
MOON SAILING IN ANUSHAM STAR GURU SAARAM.
THIS IS VIRUCHIKAM SIGN.
GURU SAILING IN 6TH HOME.
RAAHU IS SAILING IN SAME PLACE.
KETHU SAILING IN SAILING IN 7TH HOME.
RED EXPECTED FROM NOON.
10/04/2012 BIRTH NO.1 FATE NO.1
———————————–
GREEN FOR PSU.
OUT PERFORMERS FOR 10/04/2012
———————————–
PSU, POWER, AND INFRA.
UNDER PERFORMERS FOR 10/04/2012
———————————–
LARRGE CAPS REALITY, BANKING AND STEEL.
LAGNAA TIMES DURING TRADING HOURS
———————————-
opening ..to.. 10.24am RISHABAM NEUTRAL
10.24am ..to.. 12.36pm MITHUNAM NEGATIVE
12.36pm ..to.. 02.49PM KADAKAM POSITIVE
02.49pm ..to.. closing SIMMAM NEGATIVE
LAGNA TIMES CALCULATED WITH MUMBAI SUNRISE.
TECHNICAL VIEW
================
LAST(09/02) CLOSE@5234 (-88 POINTS)
LAST HIGH@5287 LOW@5228
WEEKLY HIGH@5385 LOW@5135
5DMA@5306
20DMA@5301
50DMA@5328
200DMA@5151
POSITIVE ABOVE 5244
NEXT RESISTANCES ARE AT 5266 AND AT 5288
NEGATIVE BELOW 5222
NEXT SUPPORTS ARE AT 5200 AND AT 5155
5-DAY RSI 40 AND 14-DAY RSI 46.
INDICATES NIFTY SLIPPING IN TO BEARISH ZONE.
WEEKLY KEY RESISTANCE@5377/5466
WEEKLY PIVOT @5288
WEEKLY KEY SUPPORT@5200/5111
EXPECTED RANGE FOR 10/04/2012
IN SPOT 5155-5288
SPOT RESISTANCE FOR 10/04/2012 5244/5266/5288
SPOT SUPPORTS FOR 10/04/2012 5222/5200/5155
ASTRO-BASED WEEKLY NOTES FOR TRADERS
====================================
1.REALITY… GREEN WEEK
———————————
SUKRAN-VENUS SAILING RISHABAM.
GREEN WEEK EXPECTED FOR REALITY.
2. POWER, INFRA AND FERTILIZER
———————————
MARS SAILING IN SIMMAM IN REVERSAL MODE.
LAST WEEK SHIFTED TO MITHUNAM AMSAM.
SKIP AWAY FROM REVERSAL MODE ON WEDNESDAY.
MILD GREEN EXPECTED IN THIS WEEK.
3. TELECOM- NEGATIVE WEEK
———————————
PUTHAN SKIP FROM REVERSAL MODE.
BUT GOING TO SHIFT IN TO DECLINE HOME MEENAM
FROM TUESDAY. MARS SAILING IN SIMMAM HOME.
NEGATIVE TREND EXPECTED IN THIS WEEK.
4. OIL AND STEEL
——————————–
SATURN SAILING IN REVERSAL MODE.
TAKING KANYA HOME AS RAASI AND AMSAM.
MILD GREEN EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER TWO MONTHS.
5. BANKING AND FINANCE.
——————————-
GURU SAILING IN MESHAM SIGN.
NOW TAKING RISHABAM HOME AS AMSAM.
MILD GREEN FOR BANKING FOR TWO MONTHS.
7. OTHERS
———–
PSU…….. NEGATIVE UP TO THURSDAY.
AUTO……. NEUTRAL WEEK.
IT/PHARMA.. POSITIVE WEEK.
RIL…….. NEGATIVE WEEK.
ADAG……. GREEN FROM THURSDAY.

NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 10 APRIL

As it expected that market should reverse from 5375 level it has given very good proof today. Expect blood bath till 4900 level in coming days but it’s not a technical confirmation. Any close below 5130 will confirm this fall. After a long time FII sold 1091.98 cr in future market. FII sold today 269.43cr in equity market. Nifty future open interest decreased by 2.23%, indicating long unwinding by FIIs.
Today we have seen huge open interest build up in 5200 CE +427400 and 5300CE +710100 contracts along with decreased in both 5200PE -433200 and 5300PE -520650 contracts comparatively, indicating clearly more down side move for next session. Technically RSI and slow stochastic indicator are giving more power to bears.
Market is moving in a range since two months and gradually range is shifting below. Now market range is 5135-5400. We will see minimum 200 points fall if market break its down side range. All global clues are supporting for bears. There are lots of domestic event in our Indian market so expect volatility in coming rest of week. India vix index reversed after taking support at 20 levels which I have told you in my previous pots.
INTRADAY DAY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
Resistance1 Resistance2 Resistance 3 Resistance 4 Resistance 5
5256.25 5274.39 5292.56 5310.76 5329
Support 1 Support 2 Support 3 Support 4 Support 5
5202.01 5184 5166.01 5148.06 5130.14
Recommendation:
Buy at / above: 5238.14 Targets: 5253.62 – 5271.75 – 5289.91 – 5308.11
Stoploss : 5220.06
Sell at / below: 5220.06 Targets: 5204.61 – 5186.59 – 5168.59 – 5150.63
Stoploss : 5238.14

NIFTY OUTLOOK 10-04-2012

NIFTY FUT CLOSES AT 5253 AND NIFTY SPOT AT 5234.4
IF NF SUSTAINS BELOW 5238 DOWNSIDE TRGTS ARE 5223 5205 ...
FOR TOMM I WUD LIKE TO GO LONG AND AT LEVELS AROUND 5210 5205 SL 5191 ...IF SL IS TAKEN AND NF TRADES BELOW 5175 WUD LIKE TO SHORT ALL RISES TO 5190 5200 FOR TRGTS OF 5120 5110  ON NF....
IF NF TRADES AND SUSTAINS ABOVE 5257 UPSIDE TRGTS ARE 5279 5289 5308 ...
I WUD LIKE TO SHORT LEVELS BETWEEN 5289 5308 WITH A SL OF 5315 ..IF SL IS TAKEN N NF BREACHES EITHER 5326/5331 I FEEL IN COMING SESSIONS NF WILL BREAK 5405 AND HEAD TOWARDS 5450 5470 LEVELS...
NIFTY SPOT INTRA BREAKDOWN POINT IS 5205 LEVELS...SEEE IF LEVELS AROUND 5205 ARE BEING BOUGHT INTO OR THERE IS FURTHER SUPPLY COMING IN IF THAT LEVEL IS TAKEN OUT INTRADAY...
HAVE A HAPPY TRADING DAY....

FOR Tuesday 10 th March the Game of Nifty spot expected

Bear will knock the door below 5218 and ready for

Short below 5209 the next marks 5201..5193…5182

And 5168

More forcibly attack but only below 5152 the cruel

Bloody figure may be 5143…5135…and 5127

BULL LITTLE SIGNAL MAY START AT 5250 AND AGAIN

SIGNAL FOR BOUNCE BACK AT 5260 THE NEXT STEP

WILL BE 5267…5275…5286 AND 5300

BULL MAY GET BACK FULLY BUT ONLY AND ONLY

ABOVE 5316 CROSSING THIS MARK  IS A CLEAR

INDICATION FOR BULL DAY AND THE NEXT LEVELS

MAY BE SEEN LIKE 5326…5333 AND 5341

Nifty Future >> Basic Rules

• Intraday trading should be done without any ego.
  One should follow the market indicators to make decisions and not anticipate the market to perform as per personal expectations.
• Flexibility and discipline are key for a successful trader.
• Do not be afraid to be a sheep.
• Do not overtrade.
• Take a position only when you know your profit goal and know when to stop if the market goes against you.
• Trade with the trends rather than trying to pick tops and bottoms.
• Do not trade many markets with little capital.
• Have a combination of contracts while trading.
  Do not trade just the volatile contracts.
• Calculate the risk/reward ratio before putting a trade on, then guard against holding it too long.
• Establish your trading plans before the market opens to eliminate emotional reactions.
• Decide on entry points, exit points and objectives.
• Subject your decisions to only minor changes during the session.
  Do not change during the session unless you have a very good reason.
  Follow your plan.
• Profits are for those who act, not react.
• Once a position is established and stops are selected, do not get out unless the stop is reached or the fundamental reason for taking the position changes.
• Use technical signals (charts) to maintain discipline - a vast majority of traders are not emotionally equipped to stay disciplined without some technical tools

Use discipline to eliminate impulse trading.

• Have a disciplined and detailed trading plan for each trade such as, entry, objective and exit with no changes unless the hard data changes.
  Disciplined money management indicates intelligent trading allocation and risk management.
  The overall objective is end-of-the-year bottom line, not each individual trade.
  
• When you have a successful trade, fight the natural tendency to give some of it back.
• Use a disciplined trade selection system: an organized, systematic process to eliminate impulse or emotional trading.
• You need to trade with a plan, not with hope, greed or fear.
  Plan where you will get in the market, how much you will risk on the trade and where you will take your profits.
• If prices are rising and the volume as well as open interest both are up, the market is decidedly strong.
  If the prices are rising and the volume as well as open interest both are down, the market is weakening.
• Now, if prices are declining and the volume as well as the open interest are up, the market is weak.
  However, when prices are declining and the volume as well as open interest are down, the market is gaining strength.

Cut losses short - let profits run.

• Do not overstay a good market.
  If you do, you are bound to overstay a bad one too.
• Take your lumps; just be sure they are little lumps.
• Very successful traders generally have more losing trades than winning ones.
  They do not have any hang-ups about admitting they are wrong and have the ability to close out losing positions quickly.
• Trade all positions in futures on a performance basis.
• The position must give a profit by the end of the third day after the position is taken, or else get out.
• Program your mind to accept many small losses.
• Program your mind to "sit still" for a few large gains.
  

Learn to trade from the short side.

• Most people would rather own something (go long) than owe something (go short).
• Markets can (and should) also be traded from the short side.
• Watch for divergences in related markets - “Is one market making a new high and another not following?”
• Recognize that fear, greed, ignorance, generosity, stupidity, impatience, self-delusion and so on can cost you a lot more money than the market’s going against you, and that there is no fundamental method to recognize these factors.
• Do not blindly follow computer trading.
  A computer-trading plan is only as good as the program.
  As the old saying goes, "Garbage in, garbage out."
• Learn the basics of futures trading.
  It is amazing how many people simply do not know what they are doing.
  They are bound to lose, unless they have a strong broker to guide them and keep them out of trouble.

Thrill seekers usually lose.

• If you are in futures simply for the thrill of gambling, you will probably lose, because it is a possibility that the money does not mean as much to you as the excitement.
  Just knowing this about yourself may cause you to become more prudent, which could improve your trading record.
• Have a business-like approach to the markets.
• Anyone who is inclined to speculate in futures should look at speculation as a business, and treat it as such.
  Do not regard it as a pure gamble, as many do.
  If speculation is a business, anyone in that business should learn and understand it to the best of his/her ability.

Approach the markets with a reasonable time goal.

• When you open an account with a broker, do not just decide on the amount of money, decide on the length of time for which you should trade.
  This approach enables you to conserve your equity and helps avoid the Las Vegas approach of "Well, I'll trade till my stake runs out."
• Experience shows that many who have been at it over a long period of time, end up making money.
• Do not trade on rumors.
  If you have, ask yourself this: "Over the long run, have I made money or lost money trading on rumors?"
• Beware of all tips and inside information.
• Wait for the market's action to tell you if the information you have obtained is accurate, then take a position with the developing trend.
• Do not trade unless you are well-financed, so that the market action and not your financial condition, dictates your entry and exit from the market.
  If you do not start with enough money, you may not be able to hang in there if the market temporarily turns against you.
• Be careful if you are extra smart.
  Smart people very often put on a position a little too early.
  They see the potential for a price movement before it becomes actual.
  They become worn out or "tapped out" and are not around when a big move finally gets underway.
  They were too busy trading to make money.

Never add to a losing position.

• Stay out of trouble, your first loss is your smallest loss.
• Analyze your losses.
  
• Learn from your losses.
  They are expensive lessons; you paid for them.
  Most traders do not learn from their mistakes because they do not like to think about them.
• Survive! In futures trading, the ones who stay around long enough to be there when those "Big Moves" come along are often successful.
  
• If you are just getting into the markets, be a small trader for at least a year, and then analyze your good trades and your bad ones.
• You can really learn more from your bad ones.
• Carry a notebook with you, and NOTE down interesting market information.
  Write down the market openings, price ranges, your fills, stop orders, and your own personal observations.
• Re-read your notes from time to time; use them to help analyze your performance.
  "Rome was not built in a day” and no real movement of importance takes place in one day.
• A speculator should have enough excess margins in his account to provide staying power so that he can participate in big moves.
• Take windfall profits (profits that have no sound reasons for occurring).
• Periodically redefine the kind of capital you have in the markets.
  If your personal financial situation changes and the risk capital becomes necessary capital, do not wait for "just one more day" or "one more price tick”; get out right away.
  If you don't, you will most likely start trading with your heart instead of your head, and then you will surely lose.
• Do not use the markets to feed your need for excitement.
  Always use Stop LOSS, Always...Always...Always.

9 April – Nifty View

Nifty opens after a 4 day long weekend on Monday. Last week was a low volume traded week, and movement was also lackluster on almost all the 3 trading days. Next week, the volumes are expected to improve, and we might get a trending move. The narrow range of last week has also opened up trading opportunities with small stoploss. On the downside, 5290/5270 is the zone to watch. A closing below this zone will turn the short term momentum down, which can go on to close the gap formed on 30th March. On the upside, Nifty has been forming a pattern of Lower highs and Lower lows on Daily Charts. Till the time it keeps below the falling trendline, the Bias of positional traders should be Bearish. Above this falling trendline, the Bearish pattern will be invalidated, and may signal an end of this correction for New Highs.
The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:
Friday was a nothing day from the Option Writers, except for addition of 11 lacs+ OI at 5100 PE and 5200 PE by the Bulls. At the beginning of the April series, the Option charts indicate support for Nifty at 5200 and lower levels. Resistance is currently developing at 5600 levels, but the numbers from the Bears are too small to conclude anything right now.
For Monday, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5325/5330 level. Staying above this, the intraday trend will be positive, and Nifty will head for its next resistance levels of 5355-5385 and 5410 levels. Above 5400/5410 levels, the breakout above the falling trendline can take Nifty to new highs in the short term. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5290/5285 levels. Below this, next support comes at 5270/5265 levels. Sustained move below both these levels will turn the short term momentum to down, which can leads to Nifty closing the gap formed on 30th March.
9 April – Nifty Spot resistance at 5330-5355-5385-5410. Support at 5285-5270-5245-5220

Trading strategy for 9th April 2012

The market closed the week flat ahead of long weekend and corporate quarterly earnings season due to start from this week onwards. The bellwether Infosys will announce its Q4 results on the 13th instant which will be keenly watched out for by the market. The Sensex closed the week at 17486 points gaining 81 points while the Nifty ended at 5322 with a paltry gain of 27 points. The market participants remained optimistic ahead of apex bank’s policy review mid-week whereby it is hoped that the RBI may bring in some positive economic measures for the slowing economy. Readers are advised to trade with caution keeping stock specific approach.
NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 5344.55)
The counter closed the week with marginal gain amid moderate volatility with barely three trading sessions. The counter this week may take cues from Q4 results of corporate houses and may remain in the range of 5264-5387, break above it may move up to 5407/5439 or else break below it may slide to 5239/5217. For today’s trading the counter to gain strength needs to trade and remain above 5355.75 whereby it may move up to 5373. Strong support for the counter exists at 5331.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 5319/5288.

EDUCOMP FUTURE (Last close 205.60)
The stock closed the week gaining over 5% with moderate volumes. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 209/212 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 203.25.
BANK OF INDIA FUTURE (Last close 372.50)
The PSU banking stock closed the week gaining over 2% with moderate volumes and appears positive on charts. The stock may move up to 376/379 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 368.25.

DEAR READERS,

PLEASE WATCH THE MARKET TREND AND USE YOUR
OWN DISCRETION BEFORE TAKING A TRADE.
Protect profits with trailing stops and cut losses fast.
Avoid adding contracts in loss making trades

NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 09 APRIL

As we discussed in our previous post that Nifty will face hurdle around 5375. It kissed and slip to 5305 and closed at 5322 level. There are no changing in technical indicators. There are a strong falling trend line resistance in Nifty daily chart, Any close above 5475 we may see a strong 200 points jump on nifty charts. Slow stochastic has reached in overbought zone very soon only in 4 trading session and ADX is not moving up so there may be a short term downtrend. Any close below 5280 This time will give power to bears. 5400 and 5300 put open interest has decreased and 5300 and 5400 call added open interest showing profit booking by put writers. Nifty future decreased it open interest by 5.42%. We have clearly seen profit booking in long sides.
INTRADAY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Resistance1 Resistance2 Resistance3 Resistance4 Resistance 5
5347.26 5365.56 5383.89 5402.25 5420.64
Support1 Support2 Support3 Support4 Support 5
5292.56 5274.39 5256.25 5238.14 5220.06
Recommendation:
Buy at / above: 5329 Targets: 5344.59 – 5362.87 – 5381.19 – 5399.54
Stoploss : 5310.76
Sell at / below: 5310.76 Targets: 5295.2 – 5277.02 – 5258.87 – 5240.75
Stoploss : 5329

Stock Tips And Nifty Tips For 04 April 2012

BUY CAIRN ABV 357 SL BLW 350 TGT 562-567.
SELL BAJAJ-AUTO BLW 1647 SL ABV 1660 TGT 1632-1625.
(* Momentum calls are for intraday purpose and are generated as per semi-mechanical systems. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism and it should always be there. If you find the stock opened near targets either avoid it or wait for it to come near entry level to enter, and only enter when the risk-reward ratio is favorable to you, we also recommend time to time profit booking and stop loss trailing.)
Nifty’s fully automated technical trend analysis:
NIFTY last traded price: 5358.5.
Turtle Trend Analysis: Current Hourly Trend: Up, Dynamic Trend SL: 5299.05.
Currently the Hourly MACD is bullish since it is trading above its Signal line. The MACD crossed above its Signal line 23 period(s) ago. The Hourly MACD is NOT in an Overbought/Oversold range.
There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 period(s).
The current value for the 14 Hourly RSI is 68.569. The Hourly RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. However, the Hourly RSI just crossed below 70 from a topping formation. This is a bearish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought / oversold area. The last Signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago. The RSI and price are not diverging.
PIVOT TRADING LEVELS FOR NIFTY FOR NEXT SESSION:
R2: 5,394.87 R1: 5,376.68 PIVOT POINT: 5,360.57 S1: 5,342.38 S2: 5,308.08

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 04/04/2012

GLOBAL TRENDS HELPED BULLS TO SEE A
CLOSE ABOVE 5355 AT 5359. SO IF BULLS
ABLE TO SUSTAIN 5355 ON WEDNESDAY,
THEN NEXT WEEK WE CAN SEE 5500.
NO PANIC NEEDED AS LONG AS 5244 HOLDS.
NOW 5133 IS IMPORTANT SUPPORT FOR
BULLS. ANY CLOSE BELOW 5133 WILL BRING
MORE JOY FOR BEARS.
AS PER ASTRO
GREEN TREND EXPECTED UP TO 7TH APRIL.
CORRECTION AWAITED FOR NIFTY
FROM 9TH APRIL.

TRADING STRATEGY FOR 4TH APRIL 2012

The market after firm opening yesterday moved range bound throughout the session with positive bias amid moderate volatility surging to fresh intraday high in mid-afternoon trade. The market however, trimmed intraday gains at close on profit taking. The Sensex finally closed the session at 17597 registering a gain of 119 points or 0.68% while the Nifty closed at 5358 gaining 40 points or 0.76% after making day’s high of 5378 and a low of 5344. Interest rate sensitive stocks remained in demand on hopes that the apex bank may bring in economic measures to prop up slowing economy. Further, the market may take cues from Q4 March 2012 corporate earnings which will start rolling out from next week onwards. IT bellwether Infosys will announce Q4 results on 13 April 2012. The market breadth yesterday remained positive as on BSE 1764 stocks gained while 1053 declined. Readers are advised to trade with caution keeping stock specific approach.
NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 5383.25)
The counter after firm opening yesterday moved range bound throughout the session making fresh intraday high of 5402 in mid-afternoon trade on short covering and select buying. The counter finally closed the day gaining 32 points. The counter to gain strength needs to trade and remain above 5403.75 whereby it may move up to 5424/5449. Strong support for the counter exists at 5367.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 5351/5329.

SESA GOA FUTURE (Last close 199.85)
The stock after consolidating during the past sessions closed yesterday near its weekly buy signal with average volumes gaining about 6% over its previous close indicating accumulation of the stock at current rates. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 203/205 once it trades and remains above 200.75. Strong support for the stock exists at 197.25.
GRASIM FUTURE (Last close 2665.95)
The stock after consolidation closed yesterday above its weekly buy signal gaining more than half a per-cent over its previous close albeit with low volumes. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 2682/2696 on volume trading once it remains above 2669.75. Strong support for the stock exists at 2651.25.

NIFTY OUTLOOK 04/04/2012

NIFTY FUT CLOSED AT 5383.25 AND SPOT CLOSED AT 5358.5
FOR NF IF IT OPENS N SUSTAINS ABOVE 5384 THE RALLY CAN EXTEND TO 5399 5417 ......
IF NF SUSTAINS BELOW 5365 THE FALL CAN EXTEND TO 5349 5337 5324
UNLESS I SEE NF TRADING N BREAKING 5426 ..I WUD LIKE TO USE ALL RISES TO THOSE LEVELS TO SHORT.....
NIFTY SPOT 5323 SHUD OFFER GD SUPPORT...BELOW WHICH FURTHER WEAKNESS OF 30 60 POINTS CAN BE SEEN...

MARKETS FOR 3RD APRIL

NIFTY CONTINUED WITH ITS  EXPECTED BULLISH MOMENTUM BUT THE RISE WAS NOT AS SPECTACULAR AS WAS EXPECTED. NIFTY SPOT COULD MAKE A DAY HIGH OF 5331 AND CLOSED AT 5322 HIGHER THAN THE HIGH OF FRIDAY WHICH TECHNICALLY IS A BULLISH INDICATION  FOR TUESDAY. WHAT IS MORE IMPORTANT IS THAT THE PRICE ACTION OF MONDAY WAS A 7^TH NRB CANDLE AROUND THE DAILY PIVOT. TECHNICALLY A DECISIVE BREACH OF THE HIGH OF THE 7^TH NRB AT 5331 CAN SEE A SHARP UP MOVE & IN CASE THERE IS A GAP UP OPENING ON TUESDAY THEN ONE CAN SEE MASSIVE SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL NIFTY TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS IN SPITE OF THE FACT THAT THE CURRENT WEEK WILL END ON WEDNESDAY WITH HOLIDAYS ON THURSDAY & FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON TUESDAY, THE OPENING  WILL BE INFLUENCED BY EXTERNAL MARKETS. AS EVERYTHING IS LOOKING BULLISH FOR INDIAN MARKETS NOW, ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO FIND INDIAN MARKETS ARE SUPPRESSED ON TUESDAY  WHERE AS REST OF THE ASIAN MARKETS  ARE MADE TO MOVE UP. IN ANY CASE THE BULLISH INDICATIONS GENERATED BY INDIAN MARKETS AFTER 5 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF FALLS HAS TO TAKE EFFECT AND  VERY STRONG UP MOVE FOR INDIAN MARKET IS JUST WAITING TO BLAST OFF. INDIAN MARKETS HAVE BEEN THE WORST PERFORMERS COMPARED TO MOST OF THE ASIAN AND OTHER BRICKS MARKETS IN MARCH & THE SOLE REASON FOR IT IS THE GOOD NEWS IS WILLFULLY SUPPRESSED AND VERY MINOR BAD ONES  OR HIGHLY INSIGNIFICANT NEWS IS BLOWN OUT OF PROPORTION TO GENERATE PANIC IN INDIAN MARKETS. TILL SUCH TIME OUR OWN FINANCIAL CHANNELS CONTINUE WITH THIS NASTY HABIT FOR THEIR OWN PERSONAL GAINS, NO GENUINE INDIAN INVESTOR WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE MONEY IN INDIAN MARKETS.

IF ONE HAS A CLOSER LOOK AT THE DAILY EOD CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE, ONE WILL NOTICE THAT THE CRITICAL INDICATOR SLOW STOCH  AFTER HAVING BOTTOMED OUT HAS TURNED AROUND AND HAS JUST JOTTED OUT OF THE OVERSOLD ZONE SUGGESTING MUCH MORE UP MOVE IN STORE FOR NIFTY. THE +VE BULLISH DIVERGENCE IN STOCH CONFIRMS THIS VIEW THAT ENCOURAGES  INTRADAY TRADERS  TO BOLDLY BUY THE INTRADAY DECLINES GENERATED BY ADVERSE NEWS EVENTS DURING THE DAY. SIMILAR +VE DIVERGENCE IN MACD ALSO WILL PUSH NIFTY TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART ABOVE. THE RESISTANCE LINE JOINING SWING HIGHS OF 5630, 5499 WILL ENCOUNTER NIFTY AROUND THE SPOT LEVEL OF 5383 TO 5390 LEVELS. A DECISIVE BREACH AND SUSTAINING ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE WILL SEE NIFTY  SHOOTING UP LIKE A MISSILE TOWARDS NEXT SWING HIGHS OF 5499 AND 5630 DURING THE MARKET FRIENDLY MONTH OF APRIL.

THE MONSTROUS RED CANDLE OF 22^ND MARCH HAS FORMED A 3 IN 1 OUTSIDE BAR AND A 1 IN 1 INSIDE BAR SET UP WITH HIGHS  OF THE MOTHER CANDLE AROUND 5386. A BREACH OF THIS HIGH AT 5386 WHICH FALLS AROUND THE RESISTANCE LINE COMING FROM 5630 & 5499 WILL SEE NIFTY SPOT EVEN SHOOTING PAST THESE TWO SWING HIGHS IN APRIL IT SELF. THE BREACH OF THE RESISTANCE LINE WHICH ALSO IS THE UPPER SIDE OF THE RECTANGLE AS WELL AS THE 2^ND WAVE BULLISH FLAG AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART ABOVE WILL CONFIRM THAT THE MONSTER 3^RD UP WAVE HAS STARTED FROM THE MARCH EXPIRY DAY LOW OF 5136 . LAST WEEK NIFTY HAD FALLEN & BREACHED EACH OF THE 20, 34, 50 & 200 EMAS AND ALSO THE 200 DMA. FROM FRIDAY NIFTY’S METEORIC RISE HAS TAKEN IT ABOVE EACH OF THESE CRITICAL MOVING AVERAGES  THAT SHOWS THE HIDDEN STRENGTH IN NIFTY TO EVEN SURPASS THE 22^ND FEB SWING HIGH OF 5630 IN QUICK TIME IN APRIL AS INITIAL PART OF THE MEGA 3^RD UP WAVE.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING PURPOSE, NIFTY FUTURE FINDS INITIAL RESISTANCE AROUND 5373 & VISUALIZING THE BULLISHNESS GENERATED BY THE IMPORTANT INDICATORS, ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE NIFTY FUTURES BREACHING THE MONDAYS HIGH OF 5372 BY A GAP UP OPENING ONLY. THE SUPPRESSED FORCE THAT KEPT NIFTY COMPRESSED LIKE A COILED SPRING FOR FIVE CONSECUTIVE WEEKS MAY SEE THE ENTIRE COIL ENERGY BEING RELEASED TO QUICKLY PROPEL NIFTY TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS. A DECISIVE BREACH AND SUSTAINING ABOVE CRITICAL ZONE OF 5388 TO 5396  MAY SEE NIFTY FUTURE BEING PROPELLED TOWARDS THE HIGHER ORBITS OF 5404, 5420, 5434 & EVEN 5454 LEVELS. SUPPORT FOR  NIFTY FUTURES MAY BE FOUND AROUND 5343 BELOW WHICH A STONE LIKE FALL MAY BE SEEN TOWARDS 5323 & 5310. INTRADAY TRADERS MAY LOOK FOR AN INTRADAY DECLINE TO BUY FOR QUICK GAINS. FAILURE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE  LEVELS OF 5388 TO 5396  FUTURE ZONE AND THEN FALLING TO BREACH 5343  WILL FAVOR SHORTERS TO SHORT BELOW 5343 AND MORE SHORTS BE ADDED BELOW FUTURE LEVELS OF 5323 IF AT ALL NIFTY FUTURE FALLS TOWARDS THE LEVELS OF 5343 OR 5323.

NIFTY FUTURE TECHNICAL FOR APRIL

LOOKS GOOD ABOVE ( BUY ABOVE ) >>>>> 5340.00
CROSS & TRADE ABOVE 5340.00 , THEN IT WILL TOUCH   5374.40--------5406.70--------5431.30-------5455--------5494.90--------5535-----5570-----5594----5619-----5641------5679------5697.40-----5720----5742----5776-----5794.90-----5812.40-----5831.90


LOOKS WEAK BELOW ( SELL BELOW ) <<<<< 5300.00
BREAK & TRADE BELOW 5300.00 , THEN IT WILL TOUCH  5273.60-----5255----5220-----5160.20------5120-----5068.80----5035.40-----5009.90------4966.40------4915.20-------4864.00----------4815.40---------4786.00--------4746.20--------4718.10-------4669.40

Update for 2-4-12

1. There is no indication of Trend Reversal, yet.
2. On Friday, 30-3-12, Market shoot-up just on a clarification on “GAAR” by F.M. Official Order is yet to come.
3. Enhanced Excise Duty and Rail Fare will be imposed from today.
4. Possibility of increase in Inflation cannot be denied.
5. Uneasiness and anxiety about the outcome of RBI Monetary Policy Review will be there till 17-4-2012.

NIFTY OUTLOOK 2/04/2012

NIFTY FUT CLOSED AT 5333.25  N NIFTY SPOT CLOSED AT 5295.55
IF NF SUSTAINS ABOVE 5348 ..
THEN RALLY CAN EXTEND TO 5362 5381 5399 5410
IF NF BEGANS SUSTAINING ABOVE ABOVE 5403 , N CROSSES 5426 ..WITHOUT FALLING 5382 FURTHER SHORTS WILL BE SQUEEZED N THE RALLY CAN EXTEND IN COMING SESSIONS TO 5354 5473 5491 5510
IF NF SUSTAINS BELOW 5329 NF CAN FALL INTO 5313 5295 5277 5258...
IF NF FALL BELOW 5258 N GOES BELOW 5241 WIHOUT CROSSING 5275 THEN THIS FALL CAN EXTEND TO 5222 5204 5186....IN COMING SESSIONSS
FOR NIFTY SPOT TOMM S BREAKOUT POINT WILL BE 5329 ABOVE SHORT COVERING RALLY OF ANOTHER 30 60 POINTS WILL BE SEEN

MARKETS FOR 2ND APRIL

  AFTER  FIVE CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF FALLS FROM  22^ND FEB HIGH OF 5630 TO  THE EXPIRY DAY 29^TH MARCH LOW OF 5136, NIFTY DISPLAYED ITS AS USUAL HAMMER DANCE BY CLOSING THE EXPIRY WEEK WITH A BULLISH HAMMER AT 5296 JUST A SHADE 18 POINT HIGHER THAN THE WEEKENDING 23^RD MARCH CLOSING OF 5278. THE WEEK  SAW MANY EVENTS LIKE EXPIRY DRAMA, THE DRAMA OF WEEK, THE MONTH AS WELL AS THE YEAR END, THE UNNECESSARY BRINGING UP OF THE FUNNY ‘GAAR’ ISSUE  TWO WEEKS AFTER IT WAS ANNOUNCED IN THE BUDGET TO MANIPULATE THE EXPIRY CLOSING OF NIFTY NOT ONLY BELOW THE 5200 MARK  BUT ALSO TO HAVE NIFTY BREACH THE CRITICAL 5151 MARK TO GENERATE PANIC SO THAT THE WEAKER HANDS ARE FLUSHED OUT.

NOW SINCE ALL THE DRAMA  IS OVER, ONE MAY HOPE FOR A BETTER MONTH OF APRIL ALTHOUGH THE OLD FINANCIAL CHANNELS WILL MAKE THEIR UTMOST EFFORTS IN ENSURING THAT THE MARKETS DO NOT RISE AND FALL FURTHER DOWN. EVERY POSITIVE  & MARKET FRIENDLY EVENT WILL BE  QUIETLY SUPPRESSED  OR BE GIVEN LUKEWARM RESPONSE AND A MILDER NEGATIVE EVENT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TEN TIMES TO GENERATE PANIC. IF NOTHING NEGATIVE COMES OUT THEN ‘WIGGY TURNED BALDY’ SANDY OR THE GYNAECOLOGIST  ‘SUKE’  WILL BE SUMMONED TO DELIVER MARKET CRASHING ANALYSIS. SO, EVEN THOUGH THE MONTH OF APRIL PROMISES  BIG RISE, YET BULLS MUST KEEP THEIR FINGERS CROSSED FOR THE MARKET CRASHING  DRAMA TO BE ENACTED BY ACTORS ALL AROUND.

THE +VE CLOSE TO THE WEEK HAS BROUGHT SOME RESPITE FOR THE BULLS WHO WERE SHATTERED BY THE FIVE CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF FALLS WHICH MADE THE BULLS FORGET AT LEAST SOME OF THE GREAT FEELINGS THEY HAD GOT WHEN NIFTY HAD RISEN BY  NEARLY 1100 POINTS FROM 20 DEC LOWS OF 4531 TO 22^ND FEB HIGH OF 5630. TECHNICALLY THE WEEKLY HAMMER FORMED AT THE LOWS WITH THE BOTTOM MADE AT 5136 AFTER BREACHING  THE WEEKLY 20, 34 & 50 WEEK EMAS, TO MOVE UP AND CLOSE THE WEEK ABOVE ALL THESE THREE CRITICAL EMAS IS DEFINITELY A BULLISH SIGNAL. HOWEVER, ONE MUST KEEP IN MIND THAT IN MODERN DAY TECHNICALS  WHEN EVERYTHING LOOKS BULLISH, THEN IT IS A CERTAIN CASE FOR A PAUSE OR PULL DOWN THROUGH SOME PLANTED NEWS EVENTS.

 NEWS ON EUROPEAN CRISES HAS REMAINED DORMANT FOR A FEW WEEKS NOW BECAUSE  THE MARKETS IN USA WERE TO GO UP. NOW ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR ADVERSE NEWS ON EUROPE OR IRAN & IF NOTHING ELSE THEN SOMETHING ADVERSE ON THE  MYSTERIOUS CHINESE ECONOMY TO PULL DOWN WORLD MARKETS DURING THE MARKET FRIENDLY MONTH OF APRIL. IN INDIA TOO, IF NOTHING BAD IS THERE THEN  TERMS  LIKE POLICY PARALYSIS, ECONOMIC SLOW DOWN, IMPACT OF SUBSIDY, FUEL PRICE HIKE, SLOW PROGRESS IN ALL FIELDS  ETC WILL BE UTTERED TIME & AGAIN  TO DEPRESS THE SENTIMENTS OF INVESTORS. IF  THE POORMENS’ FAVORITE MINI NIFTY INDEX CAN BE PULLED DOWN FROM 5200 TO 3500 AT 12.40 PM ON FRIDAY TO GENERATE PANIC, THEN EVERYTHING IS POSSIBLE TO MANIPULATE THE MARKETS IN INDIA. 

TECHNICALLY, IF ONE HAS A CLOSER LOOK AT THE DAILY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE, ONE WILL NOTICE THAT IT IS WELL CONFINED WITHIN A DOWN SLOPPING RECTANGLE WITH THE CRITICAL RESISTANCE AROUND 5386 TO 5400 AND THE CRITICAL SUPPORT AROUND  5080. AS LONG AS EITHER SIDE IS  NOT DECISIVELY BREACHED, NIFTY WILL BE DANCING UP & DOWN LIKE THE WAVES WITHIN THIS RECTANGLE. WITHIN THIS LARGER RECTANGLE, ONE CAN LOCATE A SMALLER RECTANGLE WHOSE HIGHS  NEEDS TO BE  BREACHED BY SPOT NIFTY ABOVE  FRIDAY’S HIGH OF 5306 IN ORDER TO MOVE UP AND TEST THE UPPER END OF THE LARGER RECTANGLE AT 5386 TO 5400 LEVELS.

IF ONE SEES THE RECTANGLE  IN CONTEXT WITH THE BIG 1^ST WAVE RISE OF NIFTY FROM THE LOWS OF 4531 TILL 5630 THEN IT LOOKS LIKE A PERFECT 2^ND WAVE BULL FLAG AND PERHAPS THE EXPIRY DAY LOW AT 5136 WAS THE LOW OF THE 2^ND WAVE WITHOUT REACHING THE EXPECTED 50% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 5080. A DECISIVE BREACH AND SUSTAINING ABOVE 5386 TO 5400 WILL BE THE EARLY INDICATION THAT PERHAPS THE MONSTROUS 3^RD UP WAVE HAS STARTED  FROM THE MARCH EXPIRY DAY LOW OF 5136, ALTHOUGH  A DECISIVE BREACH OF 14^TH MARCH HIGH OF SPOT 5499 WILL CONFIRM IT WITHOUT EVEN WAITING FOR THE 22^ND FEB HIGH OF 5630.

AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DAILY CHART ABOVE, THE CANDLE OF 27^TH MARCH WAS A COPY BOOK & PERFECT DOJI. ON 28^TH & 29^TH MARCH NIFTY BREACHED THE LOW OF THE DOJI AT 5185 TO SLIDE TILL 5136 BELOW THE 200 DMA AT 5151. THE RISE ON FRIDAY TO CROSS ALL THE RESISTANCES OF  200, 50, 34 & 20 DAY EMAS TO CLOSE AT 5296 ABOVE THE DOJI HIGH OF 5278 IN THE FORM OF A DAILY MORUBOZU CANDLE AND A WEEKLY HAMMER  TECHNICALLY SIGNALS BULLISHNESS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS EVEN THOUGH COMING WEEK IS A HIGHLY TRUNCATED WEEK WITH THURSDAY & FRIDAY BEING TRADING HOLIDAYS. TECHNICAL INDICATORS IN THE DAILY CHARTS HAVE STARTED TO LOOK HIGHLY OVERSOLD AND DELIVER EARLY BUY SIGNALS.

THE DAILY CANDLE OF THE EXPIRY DAY WAS A 7^TH NRB CANDLE & THIS 7^TH NRB CANDLE AT MARKET LOWS  FOLLOWED BY THE BIG MORUBOZU CANDLE OF FRIDAY TO NOT ONLY BREACH THE HIGHS OF THE EXPIRY DAY 7^TH NRB CANDLE BUT ALSO TO CLOSE HIGH ABOVE IT IS ANOTHER BULLISH SIGNAL TECHNICALLY WHICH  ENCOURAGES ONE TO BUY THE DECLINES FOR GOOD GAINS IN APRIL MONTH. IN SPITE OF ALL THESE BULLISH INDICATIONS FOR THE COMING WEEK, TRADERS AND INVESTORS MUST KEEP IN MIND THAT WHENEVER EVERYTHING LOOKS BULLISH, THE MARKETS WILL BE BROUGHT DOWN TO DELIVER A JOLT TO THE WEAKER HANDS CARRYING LONG POSITIONS & TO THIS EXTENT ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO FIND SOME ASIAN MARKETS ARE  PULLED DOWN ON MONDAY MORNING TO DELIVER A KNOCK OUT PUNCH TO THE HOLDERS OF LONG POSITIONS AFTER THE TECHNICALLY BULLISH RISE OF FRIDAY.

FOR MONDAYS TRADING PURPOSE, MOST LIKELY THE FRIDAYS HIGH CLOSING MAY ACT LIKE A BULL TRAP TO DECEIVE THE  LONG POSITION HOLDERS & AFTER INITIAL DOWNWARD CORRECTION TO FLUSH OUT WEAKER HANDS NIFTY MAY AGAIN BE TAKEN UP OBEYING THE  BULLISH TECHNICALS. SPOT NIFTY FINDS INITIAL INTRADAY SUPPORT AROUND 5282 TO 5275 ZONE BELOW WHICH 5262 PROVIDE THE LAST SUPPORT TO AVOID A STONE LIKE FALL. HOWEVER A DECISIVE BREACH & SUSTAINING BELOW SPOT 5262 CAN SEE NIFTY SLIDING TOWARDS 5242  & 5232 IN QUICK TIME TO THREATEN FRIDAYS OPENING GAP LOW OF 5220. SPOT NIFTY WILL ATTRACT HEAVY SHORTING ACTION IN CASE IT FAILS TO HOLD THE  CRITICAL 5272 TO 5262 ZONE, IN WHICH CASE ONE MAY BOLDLY SHORT FOR QUICK GAINS. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE, IN CASE SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE  5313 TO 5318 SPOT LEVELS THEN ONE MAY EXPECT HEAVY SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL NIFTY TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS TO TEST 5335, 5363 OR EVEN 5386 TO SET THE TREND FOR MUCH HIGHER LEVELS  DURING THE REMAINING TWO DAYS OF THE TRUNCATED WEEK ENDING ON WEDNESDAY.

 FUTURE TRADERS MAY TRADE LONG AS LONG AS NIFTY FUTURE REMAINS ABOVE THE 5291 TO 5288 ZONE BELOW WHICH ONE MAY REVERSE FOR RUTHLESS  SHORTING TO SEE LOWER FUTURE LEVELS OF 5275, 5260 OR EVEN 5242 & THEN 5225. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE IN CASE NIFTY FUTURES TRADES  ABOVE 5350 TO 5355, THEN ALSO ONE MAY TRADE LONG FOR QUICK GAINS TO SEE NIFTY FUTURES MOVING UP TOWARDS 5370 TO 5383 FOLLOWED BY 5400 OR HIGHER FUTURE LEVELS. OPTION TRADERS MAY USE INTRADAY DECLINES  IF ANY TO BUY CALLS FOR GOOD GAINS.