MARKETS FOR 2ND APRIL

  AFTER  FIVE CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF FALLS FROM  22^ND FEB HIGH OF 5630 TO  THE EXPIRY DAY 29^TH MARCH LOW OF 5136, NIFTY DISPLAYED ITS AS USUAL HAMMER DANCE BY CLOSING THE EXPIRY WEEK WITH A BULLISH HAMMER AT 5296 JUST A SHADE 18 POINT HIGHER THAN THE WEEKENDING 23^RD MARCH CLOSING OF 5278. THE WEEK  SAW MANY EVENTS LIKE EXPIRY DRAMA, THE DRAMA OF WEEK, THE MONTH AS WELL AS THE YEAR END, THE UNNECESSARY BRINGING UP OF THE FUNNY ‘GAAR’ ISSUE  TWO WEEKS AFTER IT WAS ANNOUNCED IN THE BUDGET TO MANIPULATE THE EXPIRY CLOSING OF NIFTY NOT ONLY BELOW THE 5200 MARK  BUT ALSO TO HAVE NIFTY BREACH THE CRITICAL 5151 MARK TO GENERATE PANIC SO THAT THE WEAKER HANDS ARE FLUSHED OUT.

NOW SINCE ALL THE DRAMA  IS OVER, ONE MAY HOPE FOR A BETTER MONTH OF APRIL ALTHOUGH THE OLD FINANCIAL CHANNELS WILL MAKE THEIR UTMOST EFFORTS IN ENSURING THAT THE MARKETS DO NOT RISE AND FALL FURTHER DOWN. EVERY POSITIVE  & MARKET FRIENDLY EVENT WILL BE  QUIETLY SUPPRESSED  OR BE GIVEN LUKEWARM RESPONSE AND A MILDER NEGATIVE EVENT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TEN TIMES TO GENERATE PANIC. IF NOTHING NEGATIVE COMES OUT THEN ‘WIGGY TURNED BALDY’ SANDY OR THE GYNAECOLOGIST  ‘SUKE’  WILL BE SUMMONED TO DELIVER MARKET CRASHING ANALYSIS. SO, EVEN THOUGH THE MONTH OF APRIL PROMISES  BIG RISE, YET BULLS MUST KEEP THEIR FINGERS CROSSED FOR THE MARKET CRASHING  DRAMA TO BE ENACTED BY ACTORS ALL AROUND.

THE +VE CLOSE TO THE WEEK HAS BROUGHT SOME RESPITE FOR THE BULLS WHO WERE SHATTERED BY THE FIVE CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF FALLS WHICH MADE THE BULLS FORGET AT LEAST SOME OF THE GREAT FEELINGS THEY HAD GOT WHEN NIFTY HAD RISEN BY  NEARLY 1100 POINTS FROM 20 DEC LOWS OF 4531 TO 22^ND FEB HIGH OF 5630. TECHNICALLY THE WEEKLY HAMMER FORMED AT THE LOWS WITH THE BOTTOM MADE AT 5136 AFTER BREACHING  THE WEEKLY 20, 34 & 50 WEEK EMAS, TO MOVE UP AND CLOSE THE WEEK ABOVE ALL THESE THREE CRITICAL EMAS IS DEFINITELY A BULLISH SIGNAL. HOWEVER, ONE MUST KEEP IN MIND THAT IN MODERN DAY TECHNICALS  WHEN EVERYTHING LOOKS BULLISH, THEN IT IS A CERTAIN CASE FOR A PAUSE OR PULL DOWN THROUGH SOME PLANTED NEWS EVENTS.

 NEWS ON EUROPEAN CRISES HAS REMAINED DORMANT FOR A FEW WEEKS NOW BECAUSE  THE MARKETS IN USA WERE TO GO UP. NOW ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR ADVERSE NEWS ON EUROPE OR IRAN & IF NOTHING ELSE THEN SOMETHING ADVERSE ON THE  MYSTERIOUS CHINESE ECONOMY TO PULL DOWN WORLD MARKETS DURING THE MARKET FRIENDLY MONTH OF APRIL. IN INDIA TOO, IF NOTHING BAD IS THERE THEN  TERMS  LIKE POLICY PARALYSIS, ECONOMIC SLOW DOWN, IMPACT OF SUBSIDY, FUEL PRICE HIKE, SLOW PROGRESS IN ALL FIELDS  ETC WILL BE UTTERED TIME & AGAIN  TO DEPRESS THE SENTIMENTS OF INVESTORS. IF  THE POORMENS’ FAVORITE MINI NIFTY INDEX CAN BE PULLED DOWN FROM 5200 TO 3500 AT 12.40 PM ON FRIDAY TO GENERATE PANIC, THEN EVERYTHING IS POSSIBLE TO MANIPULATE THE MARKETS IN INDIA. 

TECHNICALLY, IF ONE HAS A CLOSER LOOK AT THE DAILY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE, ONE WILL NOTICE THAT IT IS WELL CONFINED WITHIN A DOWN SLOPPING RECTANGLE WITH THE CRITICAL RESISTANCE AROUND 5386 TO 5400 AND THE CRITICAL SUPPORT AROUND  5080. AS LONG AS EITHER SIDE IS  NOT DECISIVELY BREACHED, NIFTY WILL BE DANCING UP & DOWN LIKE THE WAVES WITHIN THIS RECTANGLE. WITHIN THIS LARGER RECTANGLE, ONE CAN LOCATE A SMALLER RECTANGLE WHOSE HIGHS  NEEDS TO BE  BREACHED BY SPOT NIFTY ABOVE  FRIDAY’S HIGH OF 5306 IN ORDER TO MOVE UP AND TEST THE UPPER END OF THE LARGER RECTANGLE AT 5386 TO 5400 LEVELS.

IF ONE SEES THE RECTANGLE  IN CONTEXT WITH THE BIG 1^ST WAVE RISE OF NIFTY FROM THE LOWS OF 4531 TILL 5630 THEN IT LOOKS LIKE A PERFECT 2^ND WAVE BULL FLAG AND PERHAPS THE EXPIRY DAY LOW AT 5136 WAS THE LOW OF THE 2^ND WAVE WITHOUT REACHING THE EXPECTED 50% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 5080. A DECISIVE BREACH AND SUSTAINING ABOVE 5386 TO 5400 WILL BE THE EARLY INDICATION THAT PERHAPS THE MONSTROUS 3^RD UP WAVE HAS STARTED  FROM THE MARCH EXPIRY DAY LOW OF 5136, ALTHOUGH  A DECISIVE BREACH OF 14^TH MARCH HIGH OF SPOT 5499 WILL CONFIRM IT WITHOUT EVEN WAITING FOR THE 22^ND FEB HIGH OF 5630.

AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DAILY CHART ABOVE, THE CANDLE OF 27^TH MARCH WAS A COPY BOOK & PERFECT DOJI. ON 28^TH & 29^TH MARCH NIFTY BREACHED THE LOW OF THE DOJI AT 5185 TO SLIDE TILL 5136 BELOW THE 200 DMA AT 5151. THE RISE ON FRIDAY TO CROSS ALL THE RESISTANCES OF  200, 50, 34 & 20 DAY EMAS TO CLOSE AT 5296 ABOVE THE DOJI HIGH OF 5278 IN THE FORM OF A DAILY MORUBOZU CANDLE AND A WEEKLY HAMMER  TECHNICALLY SIGNALS BULLISHNESS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS EVEN THOUGH COMING WEEK IS A HIGHLY TRUNCATED WEEK WITH THURSDAY & FRIDAY BEING TRADING HOLIDAYS. TECHNICAL INDICATORS IN THE DAILY CHARTS HAVE STARTED TO LOOK HIGHLY OVERSOLD AND DELIVER EARLY BUY SIGNALS.

THE DAILY CANDLE OF THE EXPIRY DAY WAS A 7^TH NRB CANDLE & THIS 7^TH NRB CANDLE AT MARKET LOWS  FOLLOWED BY THE BIG MORUBOZU CANDLE OF FRIDAY TO NOT ONLY BREACH THE HIGHS OF THE EXPIRY DAY 7^TH NRB CANDLE BUT ALSO TO CLOSE HIGH ABOVE IT IS ANOTHER BULLISH SIGNAL TECHNICALLY WHICH  ENCOURAGES ONE TO BUY THE DECLINES FOR GOOD GAINS IN APRIL MONTH. IN SPITE OF ALL THESE BULLISH INDICATIONS FOR THE COMING WEEK, TRADERS AND INVESTORS MUST KEEP IN MIND THAT WHENEVER EVERYTHING LOOKS BULLISH, THE MARKETS WILL BE BROUGHT DOWN TO DELIVER A JOLT TO THE WEAKER HANDS CARRYING LONG POSITIONS & TO THIS EXTENT ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO FIND SOME ASIAN MARKETS ARE  PULLED DOWN ON MONDAY MORNING TO DELIVER A KNOCK OUT PUNCH TO THE HOLDERS OF LONG POSITIONS AFTER THE TECHNICALLY BULLISH RISE OF FRIDAY.

FOR MONDAYS TRADING PURPOSE, MOST LIKELY THE FRIDAYS HIGH CLOSING MAY ACT LIKE A BULL TRAP TO DECEIVE THE  LONG POSITION HOLDERS & AFTER INITIAL DOWNWARD CORRECTION TO FLUSH OUT WEAKER HANDS NIFTY MAY AGAIN BE TAKEN UP OBEYING THE  BULLISH TECHNICALS. SPOT NIFTY FINDS INITIAL INTRADAY SUPPORT AROUND 5282 TO 5275 ZONE BELOW WHICH 5262 PROVIDE THE LAST SUPPORT TO AVOID A STONE LIKE FALL. HOWEVER A DECISIVE BREACH & SUSTAINING BELOW SPOT 5262 CAN SEE NIFTY SLIDING TOWARDS 5242  & 5232 IN QUICK TIME TO THREATEN FRIDAYS OPENING GAP LOW OF 5220. SPOT NIFTY WILL ATTRACT HEAVY SHORTING ACTION IN CASE IT FAILS TO HOLD THE  CRITICAL 5272 TO 5262 ZONE, IN WHICH CASE ONE MAY BOLDLY SHORT FOR QUICK GAINS. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE, IN CASE SPOT NIFTY SUSTAINS ABOVE  5313 TO 5318 SPOT LEVELS THEN ONE MAY EXPECT HEAVY SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL NIFTY TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS TO TEST 5335, 5363 OR EVEN 5386 TO SET THE TREND FOR MUCH HIGHER LEVELS  DURING THE REMAINING TWO DAYS OF THE TRUNCATED WEEK ENDING ON WEDNESDAY.

 FUTURE TRADERS MAY TRADE LONG AS LONG AS NIFTY FUTURE REMAINS ABOVE THE 5291 TO 5288 ZONE BELOW WHICH ONE MAY REVERSE FOR RUTHLESS  SHORTING TO SEE LOWER FUTURE LEVELS OF 5275, 5260 OR EVEN 5242 & THEN 5225. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE IN CASE NIFTY FUTURES TRADES  ABOVE 5350 TO 5355, THEN ALSO ONE MAY TRADE LONG FOR QUICK GAINS TO SEE NIFTY FUTURES MOVING UP TOWARDS 5370 TO 5383 FOLLOWED BY 5400 OR HIGHER FUTURE LEVELS. OPTION TRADERS MAY USE INTRADAY DECLINES  IF ANY TO BUY CALLS FOR GOOD GAINS.