21 MAR NIFTY UPDATES

NIFTY’S RISE OF 17 POINTS ON TUESDAY WAS A NOT ONLY A WELL DESERVED PAUSE TO THE THREE DAYS OF BIG FALLS BUT ALSO A WELL CONCEIVED TRAP FOR THE BULLS WHO PERHAPS THOUGHT THAT THE DOWN SWING IS OVER & TOOK LONG OVERNIGHT POSITIONS. NIFTY MADE A LOWER HIGH AND LOWER LOW FOR THE 4^TH CONSECUTIVE DAY AND THE MILDLY BULLISH CLOSING BY A MERE 17 POINTS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF DOWN SWINGS. DOWS FALL OF 68 POINTS ON TUESDAY HAS SENT SHOCK WAVES THROUGH SOME OF ITS BLIND FOLLOWERS IN THE ASIAN MARKETS & AUSTRALIA, THAT WILL CERTAINLY IMPART A NEGATIVE SENTIMENT FOR INDIAN MARKETS AT LEAST AROUND THE OPENING TIME TO MAKE A LOWER LOW AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY TO RISE LATER. DOW FUTURES WILL BE SUITABLY REGULATED DURING ASIAN TRADING HOURS TO IMPART THE FOLLOW UP NEGATIVE SENTIMENT.

FOR WEDNESDAYS TRADING NIFTY SPOT WILL BE MADE TO FALL AND BREACH TUESDAYS LOWS OF 5233 TO SLIDE FURTHER AND TEST THE SUPPORT LINE AROUND 5200 . MOST LIKELY SPOT NIFTY SHOULD BOUNCE UP FROM AROUND 5200 LEVELS  FAILING WHICH THE CRITICAL LOW OF 5171 WHICH WAS PRESERVED FOR THURSDAY TO BE TESTED BEFORE BOUNCING BACK,  MAY BE TESTED ON WEDNESDAY ITSELF. IF ONE HAS A CLOSER LOOK AT THE HOURLY CHART ABOVE, ONE WILL NOTICE THAT SPOT NIFTY IS CONFINED WITHIN A PERFECT  DOWN SLOPPING RECTANGLE WHICH ACTUALLY IS A FLAG FORMATION TO THE BIGGER UP MOVE FROM 4531 TILL 5630 AND NIFTY SPOT WILL BE MADE TO TEST BASE OF THE FLAG AROUND 5080 WHICH TOO IS ALSO THE 50% RETRACEMENT LEVEL FROM THE LOW OF 4531 TILL THE HIGH OF 5630. ANY TYPE OF ABOUT TURN BEFORE TESTING THE 5080 AREA MAY BE CONSIDERED A GIFT FOR THE BULLS ON A PLATTER. TESTING OF 5080 WILL  ALSO FULFILL THE REQUIREMENT OF GENERATING THE IDEAL PANIC  BY BREACHING THE CRITICAL SWING LOW OF 5171 THAT WILL FLUSH OUT THE WEAKER HANDS.

FOR WEDNESDAYS INTRADAY TRADING PURPOSE,  EXPECT A GAP DOWN OPENING FOLLOWED BY SLIDING DOWN TO BREACH TUESDAYS  LOWS OF 5233. A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL PUSH BY THE BEARS SUPPORTED BY FRAUDULENT NEWS  EVENTS CAN SEE NIFTY SLIDING TOWARDS THE 5200 LEVELS WHICH WILL BE AROUND 1.4% 1.5% SLIDE FROM THE TUESDAYS CLOSING OF 5275 THAT SHOULD ENCOURAGE THE BULLS  TO START THEIR IDEAL DAILY INTRADAY ROUTINE BUYING SPREE & EVERY DECLINE IF  AT ALL COMES BELOW 5200 SPOT LEVELS  WILL BE  BOUGHT INTO BY THE BULLS TO SEE ANOTHER SPURT TOWARDS THE 5250 5275 LEVELS. IN FACT SLIDE BELOW THE TUESDAYS LOWS OF 5233 TOWARDS SPOT 5225 OR 5215 SHOULD ENCOURAGE INTRADAY TRADERS TO ENTER BUYING MODE. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE, RISE ABOVE THE 5282 TO 5285  SPOT ZONE WILL GENERATE SHORT COVERING FOLLOWED BY  SHARP SPURT ABOVE 5300 SPOT LEVELS ONLY. IMPORTANT MOMENTUM INDICATOR SLOW STOCH AT ROCK BOTTOM IN THE HOURLY CHART ABOVE SUGGESTS THAT A GOOD BOUNCE IS NOT VERY FAR OFF.

INITIAL INTRADAY SUPPORT FOR SPOT NIFTY IS AROUND 5260 LEVELS BELOW WHICH A STONE LIKE FALL BY AROUND 30 POINTS MAY BE EXPECTED TO MEET THE REQUIREMENT OF MAKING A LOWER LOW BELOW TUESDAYS LOWS OF SPOT 5233. SUSTAINING BELOW 5233 TO 5330 ZONE MAY SEE ANOTHER DRAMA OF GLORIOUS RETREAT BY THE BULLS TOWARDS 5200 FOLLOWED BY 5171 TO GENERATE THE IDEAL  UPWARD SPACE  FOR THE SOLID  BOUNCE WHICH MAY PERHAPS START  FROM  LATE AFTERNOON IF NOT BY MID NOON. OPTION TRADERS MAY BUY 5300 OR 5200 CALLS GRADUALLY AS NIFTY APPROACHES 5200 OR SLIDES BELOW IT TOWARDS 5171 AND  ON ANY  THE INTRADAY BOUNCE  DURING THE DAY BUY PUTS OF 5200 AND CARRY BOTH THE SETS OF PUTS & CALLS IN THE RATIO OF 2 CALLS TO 1 PUT FOR THURSDAY OR NEXT WEEK. BEERS SHOULD  FEEL THEMSELVES AS LUCKY, IF THEY CAN MANAGE A FALL BY MORE THAN 1%. BY END.

 LONG TERM INVESTOR USE THE SLIDE TOWARDS 5171 AS A BUYING & HOLDING OPPORTUNITY & MORE LONGS BE ADDED IN CASE SPOT NIFTY IS MADE TO FALL TOWARDS 5080 OR EVEN 61.8% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 4949. MYSTERIOUS & PLANTED STORIES ON  INDIAN POLITICS, BUDGET BLUES, EUROPEAN CRISES, IRAN, N. KOREA OR EVEN CHINESE ECONOMY SLOWING DOWN ARE ALL PART & PARCEL OF THE MEGA BULL MARKET & THESE PLANTED NEWS EVENTS WILL BE TIMELY USED TO PUT A BREAK TO THE MEGA BULL RUN.