MARKETS FOR 28TH MARCH

 NIFTY CONTINUED WITH ITS  ALTERNATE DAY OF BIG FALL  AND SMALL RISE & TUESDAY FORTUNATELY SAW A RISE OF 60 POINTS AGAINST THE FALL OF 94 POINTS ON MONDAY. WHAT IS  MORE INTERESTING IS THAT IN THE DAILY CHARTS SPOT NIFTY HAS CLOSED THE DAY WITH A PERFECT DOJI CANDLE THAT TOO WITH A HIGHER LOW, HIGHER HI & HIGHER CLOSING. ALTHOUGH THE  CONCOCTED NEWS ON ‘TAAR’ ON FII’S TAX IS GOING TO CONTINUE FOR SOME MORE DAYS TO REGULATE THE INDIAN MARKETS SIMILAR TO EUROPEAN CRISES IS USED TO REGULATE WORLD MARKETS, NIFTY AS OF NOW SEEMS TO BE FORMING A STRONG BOTTOM AROUND THE 5170 TO 5180 ALLOWING MEDIUM TO LONG TERM HOLDERS TO CONTINUE HOLDING THEIR LONGS AS LONG AS THIS CRITICAL SPOT NIFTY SWING LOW OF 5171 HOLDS. SIMILARLY FENCE SITTERS SITTING WITH CASH HAVE STARTED TO EMPLOY SOME FUNDS ON DECLINES TOWARDS 5200 TO 5180 ZONE BY HAVING A STRICT STOP LOSS BELOW THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5171 TO UN LEASE THE ENTIRE LONGS BELOW IT TO INDULGE IN RUTHLESS SHORTING BELOW THIS LEVEL.

WITH THE EXPIRY ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY THE WEEK, MONTH AND ACCOUNTING YEAR END ON FRIDAY, ONE MAY EXPECT EXTREME HIGH VOLATILITY TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH WILD SWINGS EITHER WAY ON PLATED NEWS EVENTS. ONE MAY EXPECT STRENGTH TO RETURN FOR SPOT NIFTY IN CASE IT MOVES UP TO CROSS AND SUSTAIN ABOVE THE 5300 TO 5313 ZONE WHICH HOSTS BOTH THE 50 & 20 DMAS WITHIN THE ZONE. SIMILARLY 200 DAY EMA AROUND 5210 AND 200 DMA AROUND 5150 WILL DELAY THE DOWNSIDE SLIDE OF NIFTY . THE PERFECT DOJI FORMED ON TUESDAY ABOVE THE MID POINT OF THE BIG RED CANDLE OF MONDAY DEPICTS STRENGTH FOR NIFTY FOR FURTHER UP MOVE TOWARDS 5300 OR HIGHER LEVELS TO CONTEST THE DAILY PIVOT, 50 DMA, 20 DMA AND THE RESISTANCE LINE COMING FROM HIGHS OF 14^TH & 22^ND MARCH. THE CONFLUENCE OF RESISTANCES AROUND THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 5300 TO 5313 WILL TEST THE REAL CAPABILITIES  OF THE SHATTERED BULLS TO EITHER SHOOT PAST THIS ZONE OF 5300 TO 5313 TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS OF 5400 IN NEXT FEW DAYS OR GIVE UP THE CHASE AND JOIN THE BEARS IN PULLING DOWN NIFTY MORE & MORE IN CASE 5171 IS BREACHED.

IN THE DAILY CHARTS, THE INDICATORS HAVE GENERATED EARLY SIGNS OF TURN AROUND FROM THE BOTTOM ZONE. IN THE HOURLY CHART ABOVE NIFTY SPOT HAS FORMED A 2 IN 1 INSIDE BAR SET UP WITH THE 2 P.M. MOTHER CANDLE HIGH OF 5277 AND LOW OF 5191. THE 30 MINUTE CHART HAS 4 IN 1 INSIDE BAR SET UP WITH THE MOTHER CANDLE WITH SAME HIGHS & LOWS. THESE TWO CRITICAL LEVELS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN EITHER PROPELLING SPOT NIFTY HIGHER ON A DECISIVE BREACH OF SPOT 5277 OR TOWARDS MUCH LOWER LEVELS ON A DECISIVE BREACH OF SPOT 5191. WITH BOTH THE BENIGN AS WELL AS ADVERSE NEWS ON ‘FII TAAR’ BEING TOSSED UP EVERY NOW & THEN, ONE COULD SEE EITHER SIDE BEING BREACHED FOR SHARP MOVE ALTHOUGH PURE TECHNICALS TILT THE BALANCE IN FAVOR OF THE BULLS IN A BIG WAY.

AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE HOURLY CHART ABOVE, SPOT NIFTY HAS THE RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 5300 TO 5315 AND SUPPORT AROUND  5200. SIMILARLY NIFTY FUTURE FINDS RESISTANCE AROUND 5300 TO 5313 LEVELS AND CRITICAL SUPPORT BETWEEN 5200 TO 5195 FUTURE LEVELS. A DECISIVE BREACH OF 5195 TO 5190 FUTURE LEVELS MAY SEE NIFTY FUTURES SLIDING BY ANOTHER 90 TO 100 POINTS ENTIRELY SKIPPING THE CRITICAL LOW OF 5180 TO 5170. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE IN CASE NIFTY FUTURES SUSTAINS ABOVE  5313  THEN THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF A SHARP UP MOVE TOWARDS 5339  WHICH IS THE UPPER END OF THE SLOPPING RECTANGLE ABOVE WHICH  5360 FOLLOWED BY 5400 MAY BE AIMED BY THE BULLS.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON WEDNESDAY , THE OPENING WILL NOT ONLY DEPEND ON  THE JOKES ON  ‘FII TAAR’ BUT ALSO ON THE CONDITION OF ASIAN MARKETS WHICH AFTER THE BIG RISE ON TUESDAY WILL FALL IN THE MORNING OF WEDNESDAY BLINDLY FOLLOWING OVERNIGHT NEGATIVE DOW. INDIAN MARKETS HAVE PERFORMED THE WORST DURING THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH 5 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF FALLS. SO ANY +VE NEWS ON ‘FII TAAR’ CAN TRIGGER MASSIVE SHORT COVERING LIKE TUESDAY THAT WILL EASILY PROPEL NIFTY ABOVE THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 5300 TO 5313. HOWEVER A REPEAT DOSE OF NEGATIVE NEWS ON ‘FII TAAR’ MAY SEE NIFTY SLIDING TOWARDS 5200 OR LOWER LEVELS. INTRADAY TRADERS MAY BUY IN CASE NIFTY FUTURES SUSTAINS ABOVE 5295 AND SELL IN CASE IT SUSTAINS BELOW 5235. OPTION TRADERS MAY USE DECLINES TO ACCUMULATE APRIL MONTH 5400 CALLS AS  LONG AS 5171 HOLDS.